Mining Titans Back at Negotiating Table: Rio Tinto and Glencore Restart Merger Talks
Copper Emerges as Critical Resource Amid Energy Transition and AI Boom.
Against the backdrop of global energy transition and AI-driven demand, copper is becoming a strategically vital resource. According to the Financial Times, mining giants Rio Tinto and Glencore have recently resumed merger talks. Analysts suggest this potential deal reflects a recalibration of scale and resource control by mining companies amid expectations of long-term growth in copper demand. However, market reactions were cautious, with Rio Tinto’s shares dropping over 5% on the Australian Securities Exchange.
On Thursday local time, the Financial Times reported that the two global mining behemoths had restarted negotiations after previous discussions collapsed roughly a year ago. Both companies separately confirmed they were engaged in preliminary talks about a potential “merger of parts or all of their businesses,” which could include an all-stock deal. Shortly after the report, however, they emphasized that no agreement was certain.
Insiders noted that under the current framework, the larger Rio Tinto might acquire Glencore, though the structure remains unclear—including whether Glencore’s commodities trading arm would be part of the deal. If finalized, the transaction would create a mining titan with an enterprise value exceeding $260 billion, underscoring the intensifying race for copper resources.
This move follows the recent “zero-premium” merger between Anglo American and Teck Resources, which pressured rivals like BHP and Rio Tinto to expand their copper portfolios. Glencore, for its part, has refocused its strategy on copper growth, with its CEO stating last year that the company aims to become the “world’s largest copper producer.” Currently ranked sixth globally, Glencore plans to nearly double its annual output to 1.6 million tons by 2035.
Over the past six months, Glencore’s shares have surged ~35%, buoyed by rising commodity prices and its copper strategy, while Rio Tinto gained over 40%. Copper prices continue to climb, with LME three-month futures breaching $13,000/ton this week before settling at $12,720.5/ton overnight.
In a Thursday report, S&P Global warned of a looming “structural leap” in copper demand, driven by energy transition, AI infrastructure, and core economic needs—against constrained supply.
Daniel Yergin, Vice Chairman of S&P Global:
“Global copper demand will surge by roughly 50%, primarily due to accelerated electrification. By 2040, worldwide electricity consumption is projected to rise ~50%.”
S&P forecasts annual copper demand from data centers will jump from ~1.1 million tons in 2025 to ~2.5 million tons by 2040, while total global demand will grow from 28 million tons (2023) to 42 million tons (2040). Without “meaningful supply expansion,” the deficit could reach 10 million tons by 2040—nearly one-third of current demand.
